Annotation: In the interests of sound planning for the modernization of information security systems, approaches to constructing methods for assessing the possibility of developing and introducing within the planned time frame innovations necessary for the timely detection, prevention and elimination of the consequences of information security threats are considered. As an indicator for assessing this possibility, it is proposed to use the probability of modernizing the information security system over a certain specified period of time. To quantify this indicator, approaches based on a generalization of Chebyshev’s inequality and the principle of stochastic dominance are proposed

Keywords: information security system, modernization planning, assessing the likelihood of meeting the deadlines for introducing innovations